Chrome OS Is No Threat to Apple for Now
In a keynote address, Google recently unveiled its operating system, Chrome OS. Relying heavily on the Google Chrome browser (which still has not arrived on the Mac), Chrome OS intends to move all data to the cloud and have all of its apps accessible through a browser.
Crazy? Innovative? Not really. Apple had this idea too, and it was a dud. Apple had the goal of web apps and cloud computing with the iPhone during its release in 2007, but it was met with large opposition. At the time, with the version 1.0 software, iPhone users did not have any apps installed on their phones: everything was done through the Safari browser. As jailbreaking became popular in the latter half of 2007, it was clear to Apple and to the tech industry that the world was not ready for total cloud computing and web applications, leaving Apple to partially open up its iPhone OS with the software development kit in 2008. The rest is history.
Being the tech geek that I am, I downloaded a build of Chrome OS and ran it under virtualization on my Mac a couple hours after the presentation. After playing around with the operating system for about five minutes, I realized that it closely followed Apple's web application: the Chrome OS is essentially the Chrome browser. That's it. Nothing else. There's no text editor like TextEdit or Notepad, no Terminal or Command Prompt for any modifications. Nothing. Just the browser and that's it.
Google's goal for users to move data off of their own local drives to the cloud is a daunting one. With the recent horror stories regarding T-Mobile and the Sidekick, cloud computing is still steps away from becoming fully reliable; Google itself even experienced its own cloud outage back in May of this year. Apple's MobileMe also experienced its share of periodic outages, leaving users outraged at unreliable service for such a steep price. While chances of the cloud failing while working is decreasing steadily, working locally is still the optimal solution: blackouts do not affect laptops, connection to the Internet is not needed, and the data is stored safely on the computer rather than on a server "in the cloud." By being completely reliant on the cloud today, users are susceptible to potentially unavailable and even lost data without their knowledge.
With that said, Google's Chrome OS is not a threat to Apple (or even Microsoft) at this time. Most users are still comfortable to carry data locally since the Internet is not available everywhere a user goes. When that problem is solved (tethering for the masses comes to mind) and data security and accessibility is solid enough, Chrome OS could possibility be a threat to Mac OS X and Windows.
However, Chrome OS does target a select group of users today. With some only needing an email client and a web browswer, Chrome OS is an optimal solution. iChat, iTunes, iLife, and several other applications would almost never be used. Netbook users come to mind, and it is entirely possible that Chrome OS will become the de facto operating system on netbooks in the future, a market in which, Apple does not have a product yet.
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I cannot agree more. Even so, Google Chrome is an infant. It is uncertain what it will be when it grows up.
There is room on the Web for a secure OS for the casual, non technical users. The Linux community has refused to offer that possibility. Linux is designed for geeks by geeks.
The world needs an OS for your cheerleader Aunt to use. She isn’t dumb, but her interests are not geeky. She just wants an OS that is safe, secure and easy to use. She doesn’t mind seeing Google’s ads as she navigates its search engine and web applications. She watches TV, after all.
Apple could decide to provide that OS, but Apple has chosen not to provide computers for the very low end computer market place like a net book, because there is not profit in them. The Net book is where Google intends to start the Chrome OS.
Chrome is linux under its hood and Google will be providing its source code. The Linux community will extend Chrome’s capabilities. VMware will be providing software to run Windows applications. As time goes on, Chrome will prove ever more capable.
The company which has the most to fear from Chrome is not Apple, but Microsoft. Not immediately, of course. Infants need to grow up before they can be threatening.
Welcome Albert to AM. First thing, you need to change the article’s typeface to something easier for the eyes - sans serif?
Like most geeks that have a little something called common sense, I am also very reluctant in expecting Google to have a revolution in the Chrome browser/OS. Not the way Google and their pundits are predicting.
Here are my key points:
1. Microsoft is sitting on 90% plus share of all PCs shipped yearly with some variant of the Windows OS. MSFT may look like a sleeping 800-lb gorilla driving a semi trailer truck about to crash over a deep ravine but fear not, there are smart folks there like Ray Ozzie and Robbie Bach. Yes, there are also boneheads like Monkey Boy himself and the former MacBU head - Roz Who? The smart folks will win out eventually. Ninety percent of anything is a Mt. Everest to erode even for Apple.
Microsoft spends a ton on OS research and have been dabbling here and there with innovative ones like Singularity. Yes, MS still is very dependent on the Windows API and will perhaps milk it until the golden cow is no more. But who will dethrone Windows? Hmmm…That is a tuffy.
As you mentioned, Big G is positioning the Chrome OS - nee Webkit-on-Linux code - to complement its office apps over the mentioned “cloud”. I can see your point but a complete “cloud”-based computing is decades away. And who just might be there when that happens? Not Google Chrome OS that’s who!
2. Apple will not be sitting around playing second fiddle to mobile internet device or MID’s OS-of-choice. No, not Apple. The iPhone’s OSX-derivative OS is only a start. As flash storage and CPU/GPU bandwidth increases incrementally per Dr. Moore of Intel’s fame, OSX will branch to other product segments like the imminent iTablet and nano iPhone. Other products waiting in the wings - a real Apple TV (a 2k-capable display to start, with a built-in OSX-driven hardware similar to the AppleTV but more advanced) and a gaming box to blow away the XBox360 and PS3.
3. Apple will enter the netbook space somewhat differently than what Asus and Acer are offering with their version of “Honey, I Shrunk The Notebook” form factor. To me, a shrunken notebook with chiclet keyboard is not what I would call a MID. It’s Origami Take 2! Even a netbook’s price of $299 is not competitive to an iTouch. You can do more with the latter with more fun and satisfaction, and lots come for FREE, as in beer. Really.
So, there are more reasons to expect Chrome OS will be D.O.A. much like the much-touted Android Java-on-Linux OS for handsets. Developers are realizing that FREE can be costly in terms of no differentiation from all the other Android wannabees.
The iPhone OS is the front-runner for the coming MID revolution, not Chrome OS, not even Windows Phone, and no amount of web chatter from Google and its pundits will change that.
Google pundits like to point to the fact that the “invasion” of Android handsets from an army of OEMs will suffocate the iPhone/Touch. I don’t buy it. As Cuba Gooding, Jr. said: “Show me the M.O.N.E.Y.!!!”
Apple has done exactly that for the past 3 years and counting.
Sorry for the lengthy post guys. Any thoughts welcome.
Microsoft is not as secure as people think. Much of its 90% market share is making it no money. Its market can be considered active and inactive.
The active market is being churned; it is being replaced by new machines periodically, even though the world computer market is flat. Wintel sells a lot of computers, but most of them end up in a landfill within two years.
The inactive market is mostly in Enterprise and is either on Windows 2000 or XP. It is assumed that this group will upgrade to Win7, but that is unknown nor will it be for years. This area may be where Chrome may make a difference.
The inactive group is on very old computers which would not benefit from Win7. Some of the Windows 2000 computers are running DOS programs, foe God’s sake. About a third of the XP machines are running cash register, displays or front ends to mainframes. They will remain the same until the hardware breaks. Another third of the XP market is in Enterprise and is unlike be change without affecting Enterprise’s workflows. A poor world economy does not make for good IT budgets.
The active market at Win7’s release was probably:
Win7 Beta 2%
Vista 9.5%
Vista computers running XP 9%
old XP computers 15%
Those computers will be likely to be upgraded or replaced with new machines in the next year or so. That is still a bunch of computers, but much less than people think ~36% of the world market.
Meanwhile, Apple 10.5 and 10.6 are 4% of the world market. They are closer to Microsoft than we are told.
In short, if that s possible to me, the Window’s market place is uncertain. A consumer version of Linux could be valuable in many places, not just for net books. The FOSS community will be putting them everywhere.
It’s good to see Google in this market - and they are really setting up so many pieces of the puzzle that as those pieces start to fall together they’ll offer a really attractive product. Definitely not a threat to Apple in the short term, but they’re there.
In line with Urban bards comment about the “Inactive market” of computers - it will be interesting if a Linux group takes Chrome and sells it for all the older PCs out there. I have some old machines I’d move to Chrome in a heartbeat if I could do it easily and it ran well. Add Windows Terminal access and I’d be very happy.
There are companies that would do likewise with older machines - but might prefer a local Google server for the Chrome OS to use before connecting to the internet - for security and speed.
I suspect that the FOSS community will jump on the Chrome OS, since it is Ubuntu Linux under a consumer oriented, HTML 5 based surface. Google wants to make Chrome to be as easy to use as possible, because that entices people who don’t own computer to buy their Net Books. Google makes its money from advertising and page views, not hardware like Apple. It has no reason to produce a heavy duty OS for serious applications. But, Google may not have a choice here.
Google will not like the FOSS community expanding Chrome’s functions. But, Google cannot complain if FOSS makes Chrome into a general purpose, object oriented, OS, because Chrome is issued under the GPL license.
VMware is likely to create a version of Fusion for Chrome so that the current XP users could run familiar Windows software. This would make a light weight OS which would be secure from virus’, Worms, adware and spyware. Google will make Chrome safe for the Internet, because that is its natural home.
Thus, Microsoft gets hit by Chrome in two areas: low end consumer computers which Apple is uninterested in and older XP computers doing specialized work for Enterprise.
@Urbanbard:
Sorry to break your bubble but you seem to be too googly-eyed (sorry can’t resist) over Rust… err Chrome OS, but it will not be as great as you think.
“This would make a light weight OS”
How can bloating this OS with Fusion/Parallels with W7 not make this just as overstuffed as my W7 system? Let alone doing this on a hardware designed for tot-sized fingers?
From what I have been reading, this OS will not give you access to its filesystem since it will not have a file manager like Finder or Explorer. Ergo you will not be able to install local applications like Fusion or anything else for that matter. Cached applications from the “cloud” will still be available offline but they will be sandboxed from one another but may be able to send messages via a mechanism like COM in Windows or Beans/RMI in Java. Perhaps HTML5 has new messaging framework that I haven’t heard about.
“Google cannot complain if FOSS makes Chrome into a general purpose, object oriented, OS…”
I can’t see why tinkerers like would try to do what you are saying. *Nix tinkerers are not impressed with some mashed-up Linux kernel with a Webkit-based HTML5 rendering engine as its primary OS driver. We can already do that with those cute Dell minis.
“Google makes its money from advertising and page views… It has no reason to produce a heavy duty OS for serious applications.”
Exactly. And this is the main reason that Rust OS will fail miserably in the open market.
“But, Google may not have a choice here.”
Invading someone’s beachfront properties (Microsoft’s and Apple’s), especially if your expertise is not invading someone’s beachfront properties, is especially an unwise choice.
Perhaps you are right that G may be feeling threatened since it only “lives” as meter maids off of those two beachfront properties. It is a very lucrative position being a meter maid and G should be grateful not threatened. Imagine the NY Times or Facebook designing free-as-cheap OS to protect their internet presence?
Google’s ambitions are way over their heads and it will show when their perpetual beta OS will make it out the gate in a year? By then another Cupertino cat or two will be out of the bag and MS will have smarted itself with W8 and a modular W9. Here hoping W9 will leave the legacy code (i.e. Registry,etc.) behind and leave those under virtualization.
Google certainly can try and why not? They have too much money to not try. I am just not convinced they will be successful at this game.
FOSS geeks, Mac dudes, or Windows people wont’ care one tiny bit. There goes 99.9% of Chrome OS’ potential market.
“@Urbanbard:
Sorry to break your bubble but you seem to be too googly-eyed (sorry can’t resist) over Rust… err Chrome OS, but it will not be as great as you think.
“This would make a light weight OS”
How can bloating this OS with Fusion/Parallels with W7 not make this just as overstuffed as my W7 system? “
It won’t be over bloated, because Fusion is an application; it isn’t the entire Windows operating system. Fusion either runs windows applications in Chrome or not. Some of the Netbooks won’t be able to run Fusion, so they will have to stay with Google’s Web applications.
But, I don’t expect Chrome to stay on the net books. More powerful systems, which currently run Windows XP, will be adapted to run Fusion under Chrome. That sounds like hacker work.
“From what I have been reading, this OS will not give you access to its filesystem since it will not have a file manager like Finder or Explorer. “
I believe that the FOSS community will help there.
Of course, it may not have Internet Explorer. Did you forget that this will be HTML 5? There are other browsers, including the Chrome browser.
Who cares about finder if Fusion can run Windows XP apps and upload XP files? WMware Fusion does that on a Mac, right now. Microsoft won’t be able to sabotage that.
““Google cannot complain if FOSS makes Chrome into a general purpose, object oriented, OS…”
I can’t see why tinkerers like would try to do what you are saying. “
I don’t see the Hackers being able to keep their hand off Chrome. The FOSS community hate Microsoft and would love to poke a finger in MS’s eye. Besides, Chrome is Linux: it is their home turf.
Of course, It would be easier to steal Mac OSX. But, I expect Apple to increasingly shut that down. Apple won’t make it impossible to create a Hackintosh, just too difficult to be worth anyone’s while.
““Google makes its money from advertising and page views… It has no reason to produce a heavy duty OS for serious applications.”
Exactly. And this is the main reason that Rust OS will fail miserably in the open market.
“
Our main difference is that I believe that there is a real need in this world for a consumer oriented, secure, light weight OS for the casual user. That will never be Linux; FOSS doesn’t want Linux to be of general use. Windows is insecure. And Apple will confine itself to its chosen markets; It will keep to where it can make money. Who else has the interest?
“Invading someone’s beachfront properties (Microsoft’s and Apple’s), especially if your expertise is not invading someone’s beachfront properties, is especially an unwise choice.”
I’ve never said that FOSS community was wise; they seem often arrogant and narcissistic.
“Perhaps you are right that G may be feeling threatened since it only “lives” as meter maids off of those two beachfront properties. It is a very lucrative position being a meter maid and G should be grateful not threatened. Imagine the NY Times or Facebook designing free-as-cheap OS to protect their internet presence?”
Microsoft wants to shut Google down. So, what choice does Google have, but to attack where Microsoft is weakest? Microsoft has externe difficulty in fighting free software.
MS is quite vulnerable, now. We do not know, yet, if the world will accept Windows Seven. It will take months before we have real figures. Large segments of the Windows 2000 and XP market may choose to wait, indefinitely.
“Google’s ambitions are way over their heads and it will show when their perpetual beta OS will make it out the gate in a year? “
Perhaps, but, Google isn’t creating a new OS. They are adapting Ubuntu Linux to their web needs.Google’s biggest projects are adapting HTML 5 to Linux and improving security. Both of those will be open source. The Linux Desktop has been unacceptable to the novice user, because of the FOSS community’s personality defects. Google might be able to overcome those defects.
“By then another Cupertino cat or two will be out of the bag and MS will have smarted itself with W8 and a modular W9. Here hoping W9 will leave the legacy code (i.e. Registry,etc.) behind and leave those under virtualization.”
Apple will not be fighting with Google; it is not engaged in the lower end of the consumer market.
Microsoft will have extreme difficulty jacking up Windows Seven and putting real foundations underneath. I have programmer friends who say that it can’t be done and Microsoft runs the risk of another Longhorn.
I’m unwilling to bet, until we have more evidence. Meanwhile, Windows Seven will be constantly attacked.
“Google certainly can try and why not? They have too much money to not try. I am just not convinced they will be successful at this game.”
So, the future is up for grabs; it is a whole new ballgame. I see Apple, Microsoft and Google going in different directions. New things are happening and that is much better than the technical grid lock that we have had.
“FOSS geeks, Mac dudes, or Windows people won’t care one tiny bit. “
You have clearly made your bet. I hope you don’t have to eat your words.
“There goes 99.9% of Chrome OS’ potential market. “
No, I see Google’s market as cheap people who don’t fit well in Apple, Linux or Microsoft’s markets. In other words, Google’s market is part of that 50 percent of the world who don’t use computers now along with Windows XP users on very old hardware.
Gee, where do I begin…I do love these constructive debates, mind you. Where is Bbx when we need him.
Let’s start here then: “there is a real need in this world for a consumer oriented, secure, light weight OS for the casual user”.
Sure. Like we need more varieties of micro-brewed pilsner? From G folks without the right expertise to make tasty malt beer? Let alone against great pale and dark ones in OSX (and MID variants) and Windows (and future variants)?
Bard, have you heard of the ultra light pilsner called iPhone OS? It is a true OSX kernel and frameworks. It is very consumer-oriented and given the amount of “consumer” reception at the point-of-sale, it is what consumers want.
Secure? there has not been a wild malware - virus, trojans, worms - to infect OSX. None. Cilch. Zero!
“because Fusion is an application; it isn’t the entire Windows operating system. Fusion either runs windows applications in Chrome or not…”
Fusion is a hypervisor layer appearing as an application to the host OS. But hypervisors are not OSes by themselves as you assert, Bard. An OS still must be installed. The XP or whatever application running in the hypervisor still looks for the API hooks that the guest OS provides.
One thing is clear from what I’ve read so far. Google will want to control what runs in the Chrome OS and running XP, virtualized or not, will not happen. FOSS community may tinker to make this happen but this will be for naught. Hard question Bard, why would I virtualize XP or even 7 to run on top of Chrome when I can get rid of Chrome and install a full copy of XP or 7?
“But, I don’t expect Chrome to stay on the net books. More powerful systems, which currently run Windows XP, will be adapted to run Fusion under Chrome.”
Therein my “beachfront” example above. Just how hard it would be for Microsoft to come up with a lightweight MID OS to knock Chrome off its 1% perch? What about Apple’s future MIDs - iPhones, Touches, Tablets? Even Palm’s WebOS is more versatile for MIDs than ChromeOS will ever be. Come to think of it, Chrome is a blatant knockoff of WebOS - Linux kernel, a Java framework, and a Javascript GUI layer. Hmmm…very original indeed.
“Of course, it may not have Internet Explorer…”
I was talking of Windows Explorer - the file manager - not Internet Explorer the web browser.
“Who cares about finder if Fusion can run Windows XP apps and upload XP files? WMware Fusion does that on a Mac, right now. Microsoft won’t be able to sabotage that.”
Fusion or Parallels, by their very lonesome, do not run Windows XP apps, Bard. You still need to install a licensed XP on the damn thing.
“I don’t see the Hackers being able to keep their hand off Chrome. The FOSS community hate Microsoft and would love to poke a finger in MS’s eye. Besides, Chrome is Linux: it is their home turf.”
True, maybe, but like you said: “That will never be Linux; FOSS doesn’t want Linux to be of general use.” So why would Linux boys help to improve ChromeOS when they already have fine distros like Ubuntu, Debian, and Fedora? Just so they can run XP on Chrome? Ha ha ha. That’s good for a laugh.
“Apple will confine itself to its chosen markets…”
Today that is true and making tons of cash in return. That’s a fact. Google is also making a mountain of greens from search ads. Why wouldn’t Google confine itself to its “chosen markets” and keep the change?
“I’ve never said that FOSS community was wise; they seem often arrogant and narcissistic.”
Ouch! That hurts, Bard. But we’re wise enough to have blessed big daddy Google the Linux kernel, the Javascript framework, the Webkit GUI renderer, and other Free-As-In-Beer software running their data warehouse.