Election Predictions! (win a Prize!)
The election is nearly upon us. Republicans are whistling past the graveyard predicting (or just loudly hoping for) minor losses. Democrats are counting on a massive wave of anti Bush sentiment and hold aspirations of gaining control of both houses. It wouldn’t be a political site if we didn’t make a prediction about the outcome and it wouldn’t be SpinMatters if we didn’t give out a prize. So the prize is: a $15 iTunes gift card. Not much, but more than you’d get for yelling predictions at the TV set.
Things to keep in mind: It is like the contest in Moby Dick, if Spinny nails it, we keep the prize. You have to pick number of Democrats and Republicans in both houses (Lieberman counts as a Democrat). First person with the right guess wins, so make your prediction different than the ones before you. One entry per person. All entries must be in before the first poll closes. And if you can’t receive an iTunes gift card (cause you’re in a foreign country or something*) the next closest person will win.
With that out of the way, it is time for Spinny’s predictions. We actually use a formula based on the polls so there is no guesswork in this for us. On the other hand, it is the first time we’ve used the formula so it is trial by fire. Here we go:
House: 234 Democrats, 201 Republicans
Senate: 49 Democrats, 51 Republicans
Get your guesses going and check back in for what will (hopefully) be live election coverage. We’d guarantee election coverage but one of the staff members has a meeting about a book tomorrow and we can’t miss that.
Other unassociated predictions:
Pollster.com will eventually crush electoral-vote.com
Katie Couric will not fare well in the ratings. Sure, people were bemused by the odd ramblings of Dan Rather (His lead is thinner than a layer of sweat on a cold Maine morning) but he was at least amusing, Katie Couric is merely annoying.
*If you can’t accept the gift card and you’re in the US chances are that competing in this contest shouldn’t be a huge priority. Get thyself a new washing stick or something.
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Comments
I think the Dems finally have voters behind them; but in a real shocker, they’ll have greater gains in the Senate than the House:
House: 236 Democrats, 199 Republicans
Senate: 51 Democrats, 49 Republicans
I would have gone with 52 seats, but I’m sure Ford will lose in Tenn. The House should be closer to 240, but I bet some seats will swing due to “voting/electronic irregularities.”
I concur, if people could vote for the next state’s congressmen the tally would be all democrat, all the time. But it comes down to self interest, republicans are good at making issues very personal.
The wildcard is the GOTV push. If it works it might be very depressing news for the dems. On the other hand if it doesn’t… Well Bush is in real trouble.
The formula SpinMatters used (and it is an actual formula) is based on past elections. The GOTV program cold be a powerful spoiler. If the Dems manage more than our prediction, we need a whole new formula!
The good news is we are working on one right now, the bad news is, obviously we don’t have much confidence in our current formula…
Republicans are whistling past the graveyard predicting (or just loudly hoping for) minor losses.
Au contraire, most Republican pundits I’ve seen are predicting HUGE losses. I think this is the smart move.
While there is some downside to overplaying a Democratic victory - it might demoralize your base - if you make such predictions with a wink and a nod, or you think it’ll motivate your base to vote, then the upside far outweighs the down. And the upside is that by making wild predictions about just how many seats the Dems will win, you make almost any reasonable win look like a failure. If you create the CW that they’ll win 125 seats, then even if they win 50 seats, it looks like a loss.
Republicans are great at the expectations game. Dems are terrible at it (and almost all forms of campaigning). They fell for it in 2000 and they are falling for it now.
I think there will be gains, but I think 30-40 seats is optimistic, in the sense that some drunken homeless bum who thinks he’ll be sleeping with Elle Macpherson come sun-up is optimistic.
House 221 Democrats, 213 Republicans, 1 Independent
Senate 49 Democrats, 50 Republicans, 1 Independent
Au contraire^2 Sir Beeb. If you go by the republicans like Rove, Mehlman and even Laura Bush the losses aren’t supposed to be substantial. A representative memo:
http://releases.usnewswire.com/GetRelease.asp?id=75742
Though I like your reasoning, set the expectation absurdly high and the reality seems like a major victory even if it technically a loss.
Y’know, I forgot about the 1 Independent. Probably because it’s likely to almost always to be a vote with the Dems.
You’re still good breuklen, from the post:
You have to pick number of Democrats and Republicans in both houses (Lieberman counts as a Democrat).
Right now it’s just a race between you an Beeb (who has a iTunes card in the mail already)
You’re right, Chris. The predictions on the Republican side do run the gamut.
It’s hard to pick which is nuttier, the ones that have Dems picking up every seat in the House plus the presidency, or the ones that have them losing every election, disbanding, and joining Al Qaeda.
Looks like the “house” wins. I for one have never been so glad to be so wrong.