Handicapping the 12th

There are people among us who, when the holiday season rolls around, simply have to know what is in the invitingly wrapped packages. These folks carefully remove the tape, peer inside, learn the nature of the gift and then replace the tape. Obviously this subterfuge leaves them with a bit of an acting job when the present is opened but the for the “early lookers” that is but a small sacrifice. For those folks the joy doesn’t come from taking possession of the item, rather the excitement is in the not knowing and it is a feeling they simply can’t bear. If you’re one of the people described above (and you know who you are) and a Mac fan this must be an excruciating time indeed. After all the “peekers” know something big is coming on Wednesday but there is no certainty as to what that “one more thing” is. Sadly the appointed Applematter’s staffer missed this week’s conference call with Steve Jobs so we’ve got no inside info to reveal. Yet all hope is not lost. We can always fall back to that old standard of inveterate gamblers everywhere and instead of making any prediction we can merely handicap the event. So what are the candidates for Wednesday’s big reveal? Let’s take a look:

The Rumor:Color Changing Macs/iPods
The Why:Years ago Apple filed a patent for a color changing enclosure. There are technical reasons why this is a good idea.
The Why Not:How likely is it that Steve Jobs assembles a slavering corps of media members only to reveal a product that, in all likelihood, would only serve to invite massive derision?
Odds: .05%

The Rumor:Madonna iPod nano…in pink
The Why:Apple enjoys celebrity iPods that feature artists long past their prime and this is another way to promote the nano.
The Why Not:At best this will be a side item and not the main event.
Odds: 75%…unfortunately

The Rumor:Airport Express AV
The Why:This seems like a natural extension of the Airport Express and could be aimed at the Tivo market. Correctly placed such a device could give Apple a presence in the living room.
The Why Not:How many people use their Airport Express to stream music in the first place? Plus the experience just isn’t that great for those that do. Taking an already marginally adopted product and updating it for video would not seem to be the stuff of an invite only media event.
Odds: 20%

The Rumor:Movie Downloads from iTunes
The Why:It is bound to happen sooner or later and no one has as much experience as Apple delivering DRM content over the internet. Plus Steve is intimately involved with the movie industry as CEO of Pixar. Fellow Movie Execs may be inclined to trust him because he will also be taking care of his own self-interests. Additionally the invitation did feature movie curtains.
The Why Not:It is doubtful that Steve can get every major studio to jump on board because of the success of the iTunes music store. Why use Apple or any middleman when you can sell your movies directly to the populace?
Odds: 33%

The Rumor:Various computer and iPod updates
The Why:There’s not much in Apple’s line up that couldn’t use a bit of an update. Where are the dual cores? Where the speed bumps for PowerBooks? And as far as iPods are concerned isn’t bigger always better? Additionally supplies were supposedly constrained recently.
The Why Not:Assembling a mass of note takers and telling them that your computers are now slightly faster is probably not the best way to make sure people show up the next time. It might happen but it won’t be “the show.”
Odds: 35%

The Rumor:Mac Tablet
The Why:Everyone, seemingly, offers a tablet computer except Apple.
The Why Not:Everyone, seemingly, offers a tablet computer except Apple but very few of them sell. If an OS X tablet shows up it is going to have to be a lot more compelling than current tablets.
Odds: 33%

The Rumor:Video iPod
The Why:It seems like a natural progression and could offer something new to buy off the iTunes store. Additionally it gives people a reason to buy iPod with ever increasing storage capacities and Steve can certainly spin the announcement in such a fashion as to make the media event seem worthwhile.
The Why Not:How many times has Steve said that the iPod wasn’t suited for video? About as many times as he dismissed a flash based iPod.
Odds: 80%

The Rumor:Black Pentium Powered Mac Laptop
The Why:Releasing a Pentium machine this far ahead of schedule would probably be great for sales and there were rumors of a carbon fiber laptop enclosure a few years ago.
The Why Not:Revealing something like this at a invite only media soiree kid of goes against Steve’s whole pitch that the transition not being a very big deal.
Odds: 10%