Is the Killer App Dead or Will Apple’s Numbers Revive It?

A killer app is one that is so desirable people will buy the system it runs on just to get the application. Does Apple have a killer app in the wings or is the killer app dead?

Computers are past the point were people will buy en masse one model over another simply because of certain features or software.

It’s too easy to create software and get it to market now-a-days. Therefore, if one company was to release some fang-dangled application for Linux or OS X, the masses on PCs wouldn’t care because they’d know that it wouldn’t be too long before someone created a Windows version. That said though, there is still room for an application to have some small effect on market share, to take a small bite.

History of the killer app
When personal computers first came into being there was no consistency, uniformity or compatibility. It was a hotch potch. A computer was a computer. You bought one and didn’t care about transfering files to anyone else’s. You’d type up your job aapplication and print it out on the 9-pin dot matrix printer in very chunky text that was no more impressive than tidy handwriting. But if you were rich you could get a 24-pin printer with its NLQ (Near Letter Quality) mode which was sure to impress any potential employer - although they might think you a total show off who they didn’t really want working for them. People didn’t really care what computer they bought.

And then along came VisiCalc, credited as being the first “killer app”. VisiCalc became the reason many people bought Apple ][ computers. Suddenly people did care about what computer they bought.

It didn’t take long though for a new killer app to hit the block. Lotus 123. Overnight it wiped VisiCalc off the map and at the same time, set in motion the IBM PC industry.

And then another killer app came along to kill off Lotus 123, namely Microsoft Excel. Because of Lotus 123’s massive popularity - at one time accounting for more than 70% of the spreadsheet market -  Excel was more important than Word to the success of MS Office and Windows. Word alone was not going to win the Windows war for Microsoft. Word Perfect despite having similar command of the word processing market, didn’t pose the same threat, because word processors are a fairly generic tool – as evidenced by many Mac faithful being quite content using nothing more than Text Edit. Microsoft needed Excel to kill off Lotus 123 for MS Office (and ultimately Windows) to succeed. If the business world preferred Lotus 123, MS Office was in trouble. But as we all know, Excel was a killer app, not only did it sell MS Office in later years, in early years it even sold Windows before Windows was widely known. I remember a bank I worked for, one department buying Windows 2 just so staff could run Excel.

Does iWork’s Numbers have a halo or a zero?
The killer app on personal computers is long dead and unlikely to ever reappear. But there are still opportunities for applications to take small chunks of market share. To coin a phrase, lets call them “halo apps” because of the halo effect. The halo effect is one where one product casts a positive light on other products leading to an increase in the secondary product’s sales. The iPod halo effect which is puported to have led to an increased Mac sales is one recent well known halo effect.

Interestingly, Apple’s iWork spreadsheet, rumored to be called Numbers (although Charts is the latest rumor), could be one such application. Interesting because for the fourth time in personal computing, a spreadsheet application could be the trigger to send sales and market share the way of a systems maker.

iWork is no MS Office competitor despite the most optimistic wishful-thinking of the Mac faithful, and without a spreadsheet it lacks the necessary punch to be even considered an alternative. But seeing how impressive and innovative Keynote and Pages have been, we can look forward with great optimism that Numbers will be very eye-catching and innovative.(Of course, don’t expect version 1 to have all the bells and whistles.)

There is a chance though that Numbers could be the trigger to send sales Apple’s way. The iLife apps have been halo apps to a small degree, and there’s no reason why Numbers won’t be the halo app to send iWork sales soaring, and lead to more than a few Mac sales to boot.

What do you think? Can Apple get the numbers with Numbers? Will Numbers be a halo app?