Is the Western PC is dead?

We note with both a smirk and a worried frown, that even Dell are struggling in the PC world. But standing tall among the debris, and as Chris Seibold noted with his clever graphs, rising from it, is Apple.

There’s a famous moment in the film Tucker: The Man and his Dream, where Preston Tucker tells the hearing that if they stop his car being built, then in the future “we’ll be driving Japanese cars with Japanese radio etc”. They all scoff, particularly as Japan had only recently been resoundingly beaten in Word War 2. That is the same horizon now facing the computer world.

With Lenovo buying the IBM line, the fall of other PC brands, by the end of the decade, we may also be buying our computers only from the Asian nations. Who would have believed it late in the 90’s with American brands IBM, Dell, HP, Gateway and Compaq dominating the world market? For the Asian nations of course, this is a great thing, for us we are going to have to reinvent ourselves and our place in technology. The irony is Apple Macs may outlast all of those American PC brands.

The center of the world is shifting

And others are thinking along these same lines. A Brian McTavish in response to the article Mactel Strategy Includes Windows and Linux by Sandy McMurray, said:

Long-term, US PC manufacture is toast & market growth is in the far east. So - controlled OS licensing to Lenovo to grab the critical China market?

That is Apple he is referring to. Proposing that they license OS X to Lenovo to gain rapid foothold in China. That idea has a lot of merit.

But back in the Western world, who you gunna call? Are IT shops going to trust Lenovo? One bad story could spread like wildfire. Dell will benefit but for how long? The ubiquitous presence of Dell computers in the world, their sales to the home market, and their reputation as cheap in price, tarnishes their image of quality (not helped lately by some quality and service issues). I won’t get into that argument, suffice to say Apple have never had any problems convincing people their computers are higher quality builds than most PCs. So Dell can’t afford any more missteps.

The door is ajar for Apple. So what can we expect?

Can Apple take advantage?
Christmas is just around the corner - 61 days - when the bearded guy comes out with a sackful of goodies. No I didn’t add up wrong. No we don’t celebrate Christmas differently down under. It’s not that Christmas with the bearded guy in red I refer to. It’s the other one - Mac World San Francisco. Yeah sure I’m gunna celebrate the first one, but it’s for the kids (and I’m going to get them a new Mac since I’m concerned about the damage the CRT does to their young eyes).

But MWSF - you can almost smell the Intel processors.

2005 has been an extraordinary year of product announcements - probably the biggest in Apple’s history - with two or three of them registering 10 on the Richter Scale.

It began with the flash based iPod shuffle
- then Mac mini (10 on the Richter scale. Turned the world up side down. PC land is yet to catch up)
- then Tiger
- then Intel inside (Another 10)
- then Mighty Mouse (This was the biggest for mine. Proponents of such a device were regularly burned at the stake. Opponents then said it would never be bundled… This was an 11 on the Richter Scale*, since people were more passionate about their one button mouse than the PowerPC processor)
- then iPod nano
- the media center iMac
- the video iPod
- and finally dual core, dual processor PowerMacs.

I don’t think I missed any, but among that list, it would be easy to. Wow! What a year!! Remember when the shuffle was big news? It seems trivial now - and an eon ago.

And, starting at MWSF, Apple could top it in 2006 - although not with not quite the same earth shattering announcements. Look at the possibilities that have been bandied about:

- Video on 4G color iPods
- Leopard
- Intel Macs
- Mac clones
- Windows on Mac
- More video, even movies on iTMS
- Unexpected partnerships (such as the one proposed by Mr McTavish, with Lenovo)
- And what of FairPlay and AAC? Maybe they’ll finally licence it to other vendors.
- A decent mobile phone with iTunes - maybe even an iPod
one
- iMacs with EyeTV
- Trial version of Mac OS X on iPods - bootable from the iPod or uploadable.
- Tablet Mac
- Dual core and/or dual processor Powerbooks

Nothing there quite as big as the multibutton mouse, but still, could totally change several playing fields.

So whilst PCs companies including the once indomitable Dell, try to hold ground to the changing market forces, Apple prepare to follow up their most significant year in history, with one to match. And if they succeed, they could change the face of computing and home and portable entertainment, more than we’d even dared hoped 12 months ago.

* Yes, I know the Richter Scale only goes up to 10
Oops! It’s been pointed out in the comments that the Richter Scale can indeed go beyond ten, although anything that high would be equivalent in to Apple announcing Intel Inside, or a mouse with right click…