The Curse of the Apple Rumor Mill

Once upon a time, Apple rumors were few and far between—when Apple rumors were cherished, looked forward to and accurate. The Apple rumor was a beautiful thing and the rumor site rivalries were interesting. Back then, Apple rumor sites were the exception—there were few of them, there was not too much to speculate about, and before the spectacular growth of the iPod and iTunes, there was little interest outside the core community. That was when Apple was a computer company.

Apple Creates a Monster
With the iPod, iTunes and related announcements, Apple kept people watching the company on their toes. From larger hard disks for the original iPods, to the Mini, to the Shuffle, the Nano, photo, video and so on, for a long time the rumor sites could barely keep up. For a long time, the true story about Apple was more fascinating than the rumors that circled it.

Also, Apple was a success story that rose out of the dot-com ashes. It was innovating while everything around it fell to the ground, which made it an obvious Wall Street darling. And what Wall Street giveth…

The Media and Wall Street Feed the Monster

Where new stock market champions rise, the financial media follows—and since the Apple product was cool and consumer-oriented, the mainstream media was close behind. The iPod became the eye-catcher of choice—every contest had an iPod as a prize and every news source had a story about the iPod or Apple all the time. Most still do.

The media loved it- here was a stock market favorite that with a coolness factor. The average media consumer had heard of an iPod and wanted one. Until, of course, everyone who wanted an iPod got one.

The Monster Outgrows Apple
The media, in turn, fuels the rumor sites. Who could resist the urge to report that bit of speculation, overheard gossip or unverified email when it could result in your story being quoted by the Wall Street Journal? Who would cover any other company (except maybe Google), when an Apple rumor could get you on the front page of the New York Times and Slashdot on the same day? Lately, we have had thousands of rumors competing for our attention most of which are not backed up and are never followed up. A few web sites have a pretty decent success rate, but in general there is just too much noise.

Which brings us to the present situation. Everyone who wants a Mac has a Mac or will very soon. The switch to Intel and the introduction of Bootcamp are great developments, but the market-share of Macintosh computers has not changed substantially in the years of rumor frenzy.

At the same time, the iPod has seen meteoric growth that fuelled rumors that fuelled more meteoric growth until now, when we have reached a point where almost everyone who wants an iPod has an iPod and the only thing that can further growth of market share is a tremendous innovation in the device. In normal circumstances, a new innovation from Apple would fuel market interest, media interest, average consumer interest and the Mac fanatic’s interest. Except that it may not because…

We have been rumored out. We have heard about the fabled 4-inch screen iPod, the true video iPod, gaming iPods, eBook iPods, DVR devices, DVR iPods and many more things that have brought us to the point where if Apple were to release a 4-inch 100GB Video iPod DVR, many among us may shrug and say, “That’s cool, but I heard that rumor months ago.” Based on our expectations, no matter what Apple does with the iPod next, it may come up short.

Like I said, we have been rumored out. Elements within the stock market have used the rumor-mongering for quick gains, as witnessed by the rollercoaster that Apple’s stock has been around key Apple announcements. The mainstream media looks to Apple web sites for tech page fillers when they run out of stories. Sometimes, I envy the Windows users with Creative MP3 players who listen to music bought from the Real Rhapsody store for the peaceful rumor-free life they must live.

Meanwhile, at Apple
Life must go on. The company still continues to surprise us—even if it is not enough for some—in areas we were not expecting, such as Bootcamp. And Apple continues to innovate in ways that most rumor sites do not cover, such as Aperture. Its gift of frenzied innovation is also its curse, as we expect Apple to conquer new markets with the same speed and razzle dazzle. Maybe we can all take a step back to reality and not let the rumors dictate our expectations.