The Worst Apple Predictions Through the Ages

The pundit-class in the media- you know who they are- have made a career out of making predictions based on flimsy facts but a very cool factoid that they have convinced themselves of. The classic example is Thomas Friedman who's "McDonalds Theory of Conflict Prevention" suggested that if two countries reached the state where they got a McDonalds, they would not go to war with each other. Needless to say, this is no longer true. But it sounds cool, and so Friedman keeps modifying his hypothesis- changing the goal posts for world peace.

The consumer products pundit-class has the same problem. With every new product or quarterly report, they find a bit of data that supports their grand hypothesis- that Apple will fail, iPods have saturated the market, OS X is for latte-drinkers and so on. Well, the Internet allows us to observe their folly in with hindsight and laugh. Here is a sample of some of the worst

Apple R.I.P.
Michael Malone for Forbes 10/5/2000
Key quote: "Steve Jobs can't run companies [...] Apple is a small fish, and the pond is going dry. And to make matters worse, the rise of personal digital assistants, palmtops, embedded controllers, etc. promises in the next few years to render the PC industry into a backwater business filled with commodity products--hardly the place to be a pricey innovator."

Yeah- that's an embarassing article to have written 16 days before the launch of the iPod. Well, at least he didn't write a book about it... no wait, he did.

Boot Camp will start exodus to Windows
Andrew Kantor for USA Today 4/14/2006
Key quote: "But the notion put forward by some Mac folks — that Boot Camp will improve the Mac's position in the business and gaming marketplace — is backward. Instead, it's more likely to convince Mac users to switch to Windows once they've used it long enough to be deprogrammed. [...] It seems that installing Boot Camp can kill OS X, thus instantly converting Mac users to Windows."

Yep, in the two years since this article, all OS X users discovered the marvel that is Vista and thankfully, the era of OS X is over.

Apple iPhone Will Fail in a Late, Defensive Move
Matthew Lynn for Bloomberg 1/15/2007
Key quote: "First, Apple is late to this party. [...] Next, the mobile-phone industry depends on cooperation with the big networks. [...] [Innovation] won't come from the iPhone. Apple will sell a few to its fans, but the iPhone won't make a long-term mark on the industry."

Lynn argues that Apple would not be able to change the fundamental structure of the mobile phone industry. In a way, Apple didn't- they played by some of the rules by teaming up with AT&T, but broke others by dictating the terms of that deal.

iPod Killers
Everyone in every publication, online and off for years

• Sony Says it's an IPod Killer"
• Is the Mobile Phone the Next iPod Killer
• New Zune inches closer to becoming an ‘iPod killer’
• Can iRiver Become an iPod Killer?

And so many more. Any time a consumer electronics company sends out a press release announcing their latest MP3 player, the media recycles the old headline. Is there any other industry where this happens? "Ubuntu Launches New Windows XP Killer" (they did!) or "Kia Launches New Toyota Camry Killer" and so on .

Note: The Apple Death Knell Counter at Mac Observer is a fantastic list of other dire predictions for Apple and its products over the past 13 years.