What Is Coming at MacWorld ‘09 and What Showed Up at the Last Five MacWorlds

Maybe the time isn't right yet, maybe Apple is using some new secret keeping protocol but the rumors for MacWorld  '09 have been sparse. What has been floating around is more an expression of personal desires than rumors that make sense. If we're going to make some guesses about MacWorld (for the record I have no inside info) perhaps taking a look at the introductions of the last five years will give us some insight:

2008 MacBook Air, Apple TV HD Rentals, Time Capsule, iPhone software upgrade

2007 iPhone, Apple TV, Airport Extreme 802.11n

2006 Intel iMac, MacBook Pro, iLife 06, iWork 06

2005 iPod shuffle, Mac mini, iLife 05, iWork 05, Final Cut Express HD

2004 iPod mini, iLife 04, Xserve g5

2003 17" PowerBook, 12" PowerBook, Safari, Keynote, iLife, Airport Extreme 802.11g

What do you see when you look at that list? Likely not as much shocking stuff as you thought you'd see. You'll get a nice talk about some software for sure (Snow Leopard, iWork etc.) but that isn't satisfying. Software at MacWorld is like getting socks for Christmas when you're six. The socks may be useful but the only thing the kid is going to talk about is that huge honking box of Legos he got.* The fun stuff to speculate about is the hardware.

The preference for hardware over software at MacWorld noted, time for the most obvious happening:

Snow Leopard talk/demo

Probability 100%

You don't want to hear about Snow Leopard at MacWorld but Steve wants to talk about it. So far, Apple has been soft selling the OS saying that there aren't any new features (lie). But as the release date draws closer the time to avoid pissing off PowerPC Mac owners gives way to the time to start whipping up a Snow Leopard frenzy. Expect to come away feeling that while Snow Leopard may look like Leopard it is the greatest operating system revision of all time. Of course, Apple fans feel that way about every revision of OS X.

iPhone nano

Probability 10%

This is one of those rumors that gets started when some guy says "Man, I wish I had an Apple phone with out the data plan." That desire is turned into a rumor by noting that most cell phones sold are still cheap things that the iPhone doesn't compete with. Apple could, one assumes, design a stunning basic phone and sell a Verizon load of them.

It isn't going to happen. While more phone sales seems like something Apple would love to do it would be a device without a way to differentiate it from the crowd while adding a layer of customer confusion. This is one of the things Steve Jobs is talking about when he says he has more pride in the products Apple doesn't make than the ones they do.

New MacPros

Probability 15%

There is no doubt that new MacPros are coming because Intel has released the Nehalem chip. A chip so incredibly great top Intel Engineers had to work for months on a new type of awesome small enough to fit in the new chip. Those chips will end up in a Mac Pro soon but if you start hearing S. Jobs talking Mac Pros at MacWorld you know you're not in for much. MacWorld is all about stuff to sell to the masses and people who buy Mac Pros are not "the masses". For further evidence of this note that last year a new Mac Pro was released the week before MacWorld. A new Mac may get the power users feeling warm inside but at $2800 it won't do much for media coverage.

Major Mac mini revision

Probability 50%

On January 11, 2005 the mini was the focus of Steve Jobs' attention but that is seemingly the last time he's taken a look at one. Like the Christmas present you thought you really, really wanted but turned out to be full of disappointment the Mac mini has been sitting in a closet gathering dust as far as Apple is concerned.

So why isn't the mini gone? It seems as though Apple must have plans for the thing. Going cheaper would help but that is doubtful. Repurposing the thing and making it desirable is a completely different. If the mini does get a major update expect something very clever on the part of Apple.

Major Apple TV revision

Probability 30%

One of the big problems with the Apple TV is that the people who would love if they owned it would never buy it and the people who understand what it does only see the shortcomings. An example is helpful. I own an Apple TV and for me it is full of meh. I never would've bought it if not for some work I was doing on The Big Book of Apple Hacks (an excellent holiday gift by the way) and it really doesn't do anything I couldn't do with, say, a mini. My wife and kid love the thing. For them it is a great portal to online and rental content without having to use a computer or drive to Blockbuster.

How Apple gets around that stumbling block is a mystery but the Apple TV is something Apple is trying very hard to get right. The company sees the huge potential market  but hasn't managed to turn the world into believers. Common solutions include integrating the Apple TV into an actual TV (that would be one expensive set), freeing the Apple TV to do more (built in browser etc) and so forth.

These are the obvious fixes but the real fix is in the software. You've probably heard of Boxee but if you have an Apple TV and haven't tried it you're really missing something. Apple isn't stupid and isn't above stealing the best parts of Boxee (great artists steal) so a really slick, very cool version of Boxee might be on the way.

Mac netbook

Probability 0%

Everyone is suddenly enamored with the concept of a netbook. Small, powerful enough for most things and more transportable than a full size notebook the allure is obvious. Apple was ahead of the curve on this one. The company already has a netbook. They call it an an air and will sell one to you for $1799.

Those are the obvious, most rumored things to show up at MacWorld. But none of that is enough to get the media buzzing and bloggers blogging. For that Apple will have to come up with something completely unexpected. Time for a wild guess with no basis in fact.

The biggest area open to Apple for growth is the iPhone. Apple makes money on the iPhone both with the hardware and with every app sold. But the iPhone has a major drawback, it is tied to one carrier. If Apple could've broken the contract with AT&T the company would've already done that. So Apple can't expand the iPhone. Yet when you think about the iPhone you realize for a lot of people the iPhone is less about the phone and more about the apps and internet. People love being constantly connected and while netbooks will come into their own once wi- fi is everywhere that day isn't here yet.

What about an iPhone without the phone? There is no way that would go over but if people are willing to carry a netbook everywhere would they be willing to carry an oversized iPhone everywhere? Kind of a netbook meets tablet meets iPhone deal? A tablet based on touch tech that could use (with a data plan) the networks of the major carriers? Oh sure, AT&T would be very angry but when is the last time Apple cared about what other companies think?

Such a device not only renders the netbook obsolete (you've got data everywhere)  it also paves the way for further iPhone growth. Pure fantasy, peg it at 5%.

Not a whole lot of excitement in that list. Even the wildest guesses seem a bit boring. On the other hand if Apple didn't come up with boring stuff and somehow make it compelling then it wouldn't be Apple. One suspects this will be a very interesting MacWorld.

*One popular pastime is complaining about the price of Macs when compared to the competition. If you feel that Apple is gouging you ease your pain buy buying some nice Star Wars Legos. Not only will you pay fifty bucks for a dollar's worth of plastic the thing shows up completely unassembled. Saddest of all you'll put them together with your kid and go buy more.