Perhaps "prophet of doom" was an overstatement. Especially if you
only meant to express the current competitive situation. However,
when I read things like this all I have to say typically is "So what?
I've been hearing about how Unix is dying for 15 years," in other
words since I was 13 years old. That doesn't change how much I love
it. I mean I absolutely love using Unix --- the rush of power I get
from using the keyboard almost all the time is only a small part of it
;)
I also hear about how TeX is dying, Lisp is dying, Emacs is dying,
etc. I *also* hear about how "this is the year that Linux will take
over." I have a hard time believing any of it, because most of it is
just opinions expressed by people who are either uninformed or believe
that any of these things should necessarily be true. For example, the
idea that Unix in any form needs a larger user base than other
operating systems to survive is just preposterous. It can survive
quite well without being the most popular. Rock 'n roll has never
been the most popular form of music, but I don't think it's going
away; not in the US anyway.
I think there will always be a diversity of opinion; there's always
going to be people who like Macintosh in whatever form: someone
already made the point that OS X is very different from earlier
versions, and yet people still flock to it. I doubt Macintosh will
ever die for the same reasons that I doubt Unix will. Even something
with as small a user base as Plan 9 from Bell Labs is still alive and
kicking after twenty years of not getting adopted. Despite "being a
failure for twenty years," Plan 9 has had some pretty significant
influences on the computing world (e.g., UTF-8).
Let's make clear a few assumptions before I proceed with my argument.
I find these to be true and often take them to be facts, and they line
up with my experience well. First: people don't choose Microsoft
Windows, they choose to buy a computer, and monopolistically Windows
is included. Secondly, as a consequence most people see buying a
computer and buying an operating system (plus a lot of other software)
as the same act. Since Apple, Inc is a hardware company that sells
its software on its own proprietary hardware, people see two
alternatives in the market, typically Dell and Apple. The two options
are hardware-software bundles, though the former is not inextricably
linked to the software it sells with. The important thing is that
this is not a choice of quality, it's a choice of aesthetic; it's a
choice between "Hi, I'm a Mac, and I'm a [boring] PC."
So let's accept that people who are buying new computers are buying
either a new computer with Windows or a new computer with OS X. In
this scenario are they going to choose Linux? No. Linux is not an
option. Most people, including people who consider themselves
technically highly knowledgeable do not even know about Linux.
Perhaps people who read computer magazines do know about Linux but
there are plenty of reasons not to choose Linux. There are the
software options that you listed, but most of all there's this: people
view OS X and Windows as "user-friendly" and Linux as weird and
unusable. The Linux Desktop Myth
(http://www.psychocats.net/essays/linuxdesktopmyth) makes the most
compelling case for this. Linux may never be big on the desktop
because monopolies such as Microsoft are a logical consequence of
buying into the idea of proprietary software development (what Eric
Raymond calls "the manufacturing delusion").
On top of that, most of the time we're not even talking about
technical "power" users. We're talking about people who think
Microsoft Office is an operating system. They've never bought a
computer that didn't come with Windows pre-installed. If they've ever
used another operating system, it was MacOS of one variety or another,
and they may have liked it, but it wasn't all that different since it
was still loaded up with Microsoft software. They may have even heard
about open source or free software because of Firefox, but since they
don't understand what an operating system is, they're not going to
switch to a different one, even if the idea of free-of-charge software
appeals to them.
People who switch are people like me. People who were almost
successfully brainwashed by the Microsoft monopoly; but for the
glaring fact that their software sucks, I was always on they lookout
for an alternative. I thought I had one alternative:
Macintosh. That's because Apple is a monopoly, too! They struggle to
maintain the monopoly over the alternatives to Windows, and of course,
they do a pretty good job. They advertise, they use DRM and all the
proprietary tricks --- the same ones as Microsoft --- to maintain the
Rebel Monopoly.
Unfortunately for Apple, there are also people like me: people who
don't think OS X is a real alternative, because it's not Unix enough.
Luckily I found out about Linux and since I had previous Unix
experience, I knew I could use it, and I switched as soon as it became
practical. I was astounded at the variety, availability and quality
of the free and open source software I found. I repeatedly marvel at
how good all this stuff is; whenever I touch a Mac or a Windows
computer, I'm reminded of why I switched. And even as technically
knowledgeable as I was, I never knew about it; no one ever said
anything about it to me. It's that hidden.
So your article makes some good points, and is overall correct;
however you're yet another prophet of doom for Unix, just another in a
long line that stretches back to the beginnings of Unix, almost forty
years ago. But Unix will not die, no matter how small its user base,
in any market (desktop vs. server) because it appeals to people who
think a certain way and it's better than anything else out there.
People who proudly use Linux on the desktop are bound to not care. I
care about your article because hopefully some Apple cultists will
hear about Linux from it. I'm sure there are some among you who feel
just like me, and you should try Linux.
Apple is Killing Linux on the Desktop
Apple is Killing Linux on the Desktop